Bird flu linkfest
First, a few basic updates for those of you who are avoiding the news for whatever good and valid reasons -- all of it hidden behind the fold for those of you who would like to continue avoiding the news, also for good and valid reasons.
Point 1: More human cases of bird flu have been confirmed in Indonesia. CNN reports that Indonesia's health ministry announced today that a four-year-old boy in Lampung Province is the sixth confirmed case in the country. Of course, the confirmed cases only include the ones that have tested positive for H5N1 -- in other words, it includes only the cases that have been tested in the first place, and have had those tests duplicated to confirm. More excitable sources with less concern about offending Indonesian authorities, like China's English-language news service, are reporting 7 confirmed deaths and 85 suspected cases currently hospitalized.
Point 2: Bird flu has been spreading in bird populations across Asia. Yesterday, authorities in Romania and Turkey announced the discovery of bird die-offs, consistent with a bird flu. Turkey confirms that its cases are an H5 type of flu; Romania is denying that its cases are H5N1. In any event, it seems that bird flu is arriving at the bridge between Asia and Europe, as well as the Middle East.
Point 3: Scientists announced this week that they have sequenced the virus that caused the 1918 flu pandemic, in which tens of millions of people around the world died. The bad news is that, in the words of The New York Times, the 1918 virus was "found to be a bird flu that jumped directly to humans."* Gulp. A set of 25-30 changes in the 4,400 amino acids that make up the virus make it unusually deadly. Unlike the more recent pandemics in 1957 and 1968, which were mostly human viruses that had acquired some characteristics from bird flu, the 1918 virus infects cells deep in the lungs, as well as lung cells that are not normally affected by flu. The current H5N1 virus has made some -- but not all -- of the same changes that allowed the 1918 virus to be so devastating. If you're looking for a more optimistic slant on this news, another article in today's NYT quotes Dr. Edwin Kilbourne, an emeritus professor at New York Medical College, who believes that increased urbanization, acquired immunities, better living conditions, and more sophisticated medical care make us less vulnerable to bird flu than we were in 1918. We sure hope he's right.
*I'm sorry to report that The New York Times has found some way to work around my usual TinyURL solution to the problem of articles that require registration.
For better summaries than I can give at the moment (given that LG has chosen this morning to try shrieking bloody murder as a means of getting attention, and has been confined to his room for the afternoon), you should check out this post from the Daily Kos, and this from Effect Measure. As always, I recommend checking in regularly at Effect Measure when you're making the apocalypse rounds online.
----
So that's what's happening. Whether it all means that the apocalypse is imminent is not a question that I am qualified to answer. The question is: what do y'all want to do about it? For many of you, of course, the answer is "nothing." I certainly think that is a valid response. Preparation is expensive (prohibitively so for many people) and, besides, a pain in the ass. I've been trying not to purchase much that we wouldn't use in the course of our daily lives anyway, to minimize the potential waste of preparing for an apocalypse that never comes (remember Y2K?), but even so it's no trivial thing to pay up front for three months worth of nonperishable groceries.
If you are on the fence as to whether or not you see any sense to preparations, I recommend going over to the Flu Wiki. Information, at least, is mostly free, and the Flu Wiki has a lot of it. There is a section on pandemic preparedness that's worth a look through. (I would keep in mind that information can be posted to the wiki by anyone. Don't assume that what you're reading comes from an expert just because the author claims to be an expert!) I have printed out a copy of a Georgia physician's monograph on treating flu victims at home, and keep it with the stash. Warning: graphic descriptions of flu victims in extremis are upsetting. There is also lots of posted information about food storage safety, much of which, if accurate, makes me believe that we should be eating faster...
While we're on the subject of food stashes, by the way, I recommend this link, via the Xpat Files. Leave it to the Swiss to make the subject of emergency food rations seem downright fun!
Finally, if you've managed to wade through all of this and still can't get enough of the bird flu apocalypse, you might as well try the fictionalized account of what a flu epidemic would look like in a small Canadian city. It is not for the faint of heart, but, if you can get through it, you will have a much better idea of what we may be preparing for.
I'll try to keep you up-to-date on anything that seems of genuine concern -- or anything that gives cause for genuine relief. But I encourage you to do a little poking around yourself, and decide where you fall on the Apocalypse Panic Continuum.
Point 1: More human cases of bird flu have been confirmed in Indonesia. CNN reports that Indonesia's health ministry announced today that a four-year-old boy in Lampung Province is the sixth confirmed case in the country. Of course, the confirmed cases only include the ones that have tested positive for H5N1 -- in other words, it includes only the cases that have been tested in the first place, and have had those tests duplicated to confirm. More excitable sources with less concern about offending Indonesian authorities, like China's English-language news service, are reporting 7 confirmed deaths and 85 suspected cases currently hospitalized.
Point 2: Bird flu has been spreading in bird populations across Asia. Yesterday, authorities in Romania and Turkey announced the discovery of bird die-offs, consistent with a bird flu. Turkey confirms that its cases are an H5 type of flu; Romania is denying that its cases are H5N1. In any event, it seems that bird flu is arriving at the bridge between Asia and Europe, as well as the Middle East.
Point 3: Scientists announced this week that they have sequenced the virus that caused the 1918 flu pandemic, in which tens of millions of people around the world died. The bad news is that, in the words of The New York Times, the 1918 virus was "found to be a bird flu that jumped directly to humans."* Gulp. A set of 25-30 changes in the 4,400 amino acids that make up the virus make it unusually deadly. Unlike the more recent pandemics in 1957 and 1968, which were mostly human viruses that had acquired some characteristics from bird flu, the 1918 virus infects cells deep in the lungs, as well as lung cells that are not normally affected by flu. The current H5N1 virus has made some -- but not all -- of the same changes that allowed the 1918 virus to be so devastating. If you're looking for a more optimistic slant on this news, another article in today's NYT quotes Dr. Edwin Kilbourne, an emeritus professor at New York Medical College, who believes that increased urbanization, acquired immunities, better living conditions, and more sophisticated medical care make us less vulnerable to bird flu than we were in 1918. We sure hope he's right.
*I'm sorry to report that The New York Times has found some way to work around my usual TinyURL solution to the problem of articles that require registration.
For better summaries than I can give at the moment (given that LG has chosen this morning to try shrieking bloody murder as a means of getting attention, and has been confined to his room for the afternoon), you should check out this post from the Daily Kos, and this from Effect Measure. As always, I recommend checking in regularly at Effect Measure when you're making the apocalypse rounds online.
----
So that's what's happening. Whether it all means that the apocalypse is imminent is not a question that I am qualified to answer. The question is: what do y'all want to do about it? For many of you, of course, the answer is "nothing." I certainly think that is a valid response. Preparation is expensive (prohibitively so for many people) and, besides, a pain in the ass. I've been trying not to purchase much that we wouldn't use in the course of our daily lives anyway, to minimize the potential waste of preparing for an apocalypse that never comes (remember Y2K?), but even so it's no trivial thing to pay up front for three months worth of nonperishable groceries.
If you are on the fence as to whether or not you see any sense to preparations, I recommend going over to the Flu Wiki. Information, at least, is mostly free, and the Flu Wiki has a lot of it. There is a section on pandemic preparedness that's worth a look through. (I would keep in mind that information can be posted to the wiki by anyone. Don't assume that what you're reading comes from an expert just because the author claims to be an expert!) I have printed out a copy of a Georgia physician's monograph on treating flu victims at home, and keep it with the stash. Warning: graphic descriptions of flu victims in extremis are upsetting. There is also lots of posted information about food storage safety, much of which, if accurate, makes me believe that we should be eating faster...
While we're on the subject of food stashes, by the way, I recommend this link, via the Xpat Files. Leave it to the Swiss to make the subject of emergency food rations seem downright fun!
Finally, if you've managed to wade through all of this and still can't get enough of the bird flu apocalypse, you might as well try the fictionalized account of what a flu epidemic would look like in a small Canadian city. It is not for the faint of heart, but, if you can get through it, you will have a much better idea of what we may be preparing for.
I'll try to keep you up-to-date on anything that seems of genuine concern -- or anything that gives cause for genuine relief. But I encourage you to do a little poking around yourself, and decide where you fall on the Apocalypse Panic Continuum.
posted by Phantom Scribbler at 11:33 AM 
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